The Folly of the Israel Hamas War

 

                                                                    Gaza City

                                        

The book I’m reading now is The March of Folly, by Barbara Tuchman, about the tendency of governments and leaders make foolish, tragic decisions, and then to continue the policies in spite of evidence that they’re folly. Her examples are the Trojans taking the wooden horse filled with Greeks into their city, the Renaissance Popes provoking the Protestant secession, the British losing her American colonies, and finally America’s travesty in Vietnam. The conclusions Ms. Tuchman draws are very perceptive and timely, even though her book was published in 1984. 

She concludes that “Once a policy has been adopted and implemented, all subsequent activity becomes an effort to justify it.” That was certainly true in Vietnam, where we were involved for almost 30 years, with each of five different presidents trying to justify the original decision. 

We made a similar mistake more recently in Afghanistan. We fought there for 20 years through the administrations of four different presidents, trying first to defeat Al-Qaeda, and then the Taliban – resulting in our humiliating defeat in 2021, when we finally withdrew our troops. 

As I follow the news of the world’s latest conflicts, I’m afraid Tuchman’s observations may apply to them as well. First, Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine, which was supposed to be over in a couple of weeks, has lasted over a year. His reasons for the invasion, allegedly to weaken NATO and create a buffer zone between Russia and the rest of Europe, have backfired. NATO is stronger than ever, and may even add Ukraine as a new member. In spite of the failure of his policy, Putin seems to be following Tuchman’s rule, attempting to justify his policy and persisting in his war. 

As I observe Netanyahu’s response to Hamas’ brutal attack on Israel, and our unquestioning support of him, I see the same situation developing. He has vowed to destroy Hamas, but he seems destined to kill an enormous number of civilians in the process, and to create a humanitarian crisis for those remaining. The conflict has already involved the West Bank Palestinians, Hezbollah and Iran, and who knows where the war will spread to next. 

I’m afraid Netanyahu is likely to follow Tuchman’s rule and continue his invasion of Gaza, refusing to back off from his futile attempt to destroy Palestinian opposition, and the more ships and arms we send to support him, the more likely we are to be drawn in with him. 

I know it’s complicated, but someone should show concern for the almost 12,000 lives already lost in Israel and Gaza. As was shown in WWII,  Vietnam, and Afghanistan, dropping more bombs does not result in de-escalation of a conflict. It’s more likely to make the Palestinians more resolute in their resistance, and to make it easier to recruit more terrorists. The best course at this point would be for both sides to declare that sacrificing more lives will not solve the problem, and to start a real negotiation that aims for independence and survival for both Israel and Palestine.   

Fat chance.